Selections from #Kelso #Southwell

1255 Southwell

Street Poet 0.5pt EW 33/1 5 places SkyBet – Faded late on last time out making a return to action following 6 months off the track and having had a wind op going into the race. Can be entitled to have come on a little for that run and should go closer here today from a very attractive mark. Danger comes from another well treated runner in Loving Your Work from the in form R Menzies yard.

230 Southwell

Bronze River 1pt win only 7/1 – Has been blowing the start recently and has missed the break on all of his last 3 starts. Despite that he has been seeing out his races well and should give a good account once more. This represents a small dip in grade and granted a clearer break should be right in the mix.

330 Southwell

Sandie’s Dream 1pt win only 12/1 – Put in a very pleasing run returning to action last time out. Had no chance with the run away winner but stayed on well having been a bit short of room at a pivotal point. Should give another good account here for the in form Marco Botti yard.

105 Kelso

Into Overdrive 1pt win only 6/1 – A winner on only his second start over hurdles and has held that form well enough in a couple of starts since. Quickly reverts to the bigger obstacles now from what looks a very fair mark and on breeding should make into a decent chaser.

Multiple

0.25Pt Trixie on above 3 win selections – 1pt

Jan 8th Summary of selections

The latest selections

Main Selections

545 Kempton

King Carney 14/1 0.5pt EW 4 places Skybet – Would be easy to look elsewhere at first glance but has fallen to a very attractive mark following a few lacklustre performances for this new yard. Steps back up to the mile today however, a trip over which both of his wins to date have come at which is a huge plus from this tumbling mark. Looks to be at the right level here to get involved and is turned out quickly by the yard that took the race last year.

110 Lingfield

Canagat 1`pt win only 14/1 – Looked to be on his way back to some sort of form at Southwell 2 runs back but failed to build on that last time out. Has plummeted down the weights and goes today from a career low mark in a race that was taken by the same yard last year. Will be entitled to go much closer here dropping back in trip.

233 Newcastle

Rafferty’s Return 14/1 0.5pt EW – Up in trip for this belated hurdles debut and comes here with the yard bang in form with 6/14 in the last 14 days for a 43% strike. Showed ability in his two bumpers and cannot be ruled out receiving a fair chunk of weight from a few of the market principals.

Multiple

0.25pt EW trixie on above 3 runners

Jan Pts Played – 16pts

Jan Pts Returned – 18.20pts


Specials/Offers

Rikoboy 18/1 £10 win only (Paddy Power, money back as FREE BET if finishing 2nd,3rd or 4th in the 205 Wincanton)

A winner at Market Rasen last winter and followed up with another good run before putting in a couple of lesser efforts. Has been wrapped up since then and makes a return to action today for the very shrewd Dr Newland. Has gone well fresh previously and this yard know how to get one ready. Improvement can be expected and this one would not need to improve much to put in a big run here. Eased a couple of pounds and has conditions on side.

Coupdebol 6/1 £10 win only (Boylesports, money back as FREE BET on all losing bets in the 130 Wincanton)

Very lightly raced 7 year old who needs taking seriously now entering handicap company. Has displayed a fair level of ability in two runs for this yard that were separated by almost 2 years off the track. Latest run following over 700 days off the track and wind surgery was a very pleasing one and much more can be expected here. Could well be a handicap blot based on performances to date but still has something to prove here.


Charity Bet

CJ’s Charity selection today

Crossing The Bar 5/2 (240 Winc) – £10 win only Corals no finish money back offer

Has placed in both hurdles starts to date and looks fairly treated going in handicap company for the first time today. Form of latest run looks to be strong enough to get involved here.

FREE BETS

BET365

Free £5 bet on any race at Sandown today

Natural History 9/2 (335Sand) – £5 Win Only

Paddy Power

William Hills

FREE or 4 game selections (Win up to £200 for free)

Wycombe v Sunderland – Leicester v Watford – Port Vale v Brentford – Accrington v MK Dons – Newport v Salford – Oldham V Sutton

Ladbrokes

1-2-FREE game selections (Win up to £100 for free)

West Ham 3- 1 Leeds

Cameroon 3 – 0 Burkina Faso

Nottm Forrest 1 – 2 Arsenal


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York #EborFestival Selections

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13:50 York 21 Aug 2021

Sky Bet And Symphony Group Strensall Stakes

My Oberon 1pt win only 9/2

Took a Newmarket G3 with relative ease on return to action back in April and has since acquitted himself well at the highest level. Has been freshened up with a break and should be ready to roll here for the in form William Haggas and Tom Marquand. Has a previous course win to his name and will not mind the forecast rain.

14:25 York 21 Aug 2021

Sky Bet Melrose Handicap

Marshall Plan 0.5pt EW 16/1 6 places

Beat the Mark Johnston trained Golden Flame on just his second start and put in a fair effort in a race that has worked out pretty well at Royal Ascot. Shaped as though this step up in trip could suit when last seen a staying on 3rd and is well worth a try at these odds for the bang in form John Gosden.

15:00 York 21 Aug 2021

Sky Bet City Of York Stakes

Fivethousandtoone 0.5pt EW 40/1

Three year old runners have done well in this race in recent years taking 5 of the last 6 renewals so we plum for one of only 2 in here this term. Nowhere near his best in a couple of runs this year and has plenty to prove today. The best of his 2yo form however puts him right in the mix here should he be able to rediscover himself a little today. Yard are being patient with him and it will pay off at some point.

15:35 York 21 Aug 2021

Sky Bet Ebor Handicap

Max Vega 0.5pt EW 25/1 8 places Skybet

Stayed on past beaten horses when last seen returning from a 9 month lay off and a gelding op but was entitled to have been in need of that run and much better can be expected today. He is in good hands and put in one of his best performances around this time last year at Newbury when second to the very smart Hukum. Won’t mind the forecast rain and is overpriced with 8 places available. the Willie Mullins runner, Mt Leinster has to be feared given his trainers recent record in these type of events so a 1pt saver is advised at 6/1

16:10 York 21 Aug 2021

Julia Graves Roses Stakes

Caturra 1pt win only 15/2

Last of 7 in the G2 Richmond stakes last time out but was not beaten far that day having tried to make all in a race that looks to be holding its form well having turned out a G1 winner since. Already a listed winner and will need to defy a small penalty today but looks capable dropping back in trip today. Not sure he will want too much of the forecast rain but has the stamina to be staying on should it get testing enough.

16:45 York 21 Aug 2021

Sky Bet Handicap

Strait Of Hormuz 1pt win only 8/1

Back to form when a close up 3rd in the John Smith’s Cup last time out over CD and another few strides would have seen him come out on top. Andre Atzeni takes over in the saddle today and this ones last victory came in these very capable hands. Versatile with conditions and has to go close again today. Race could well be set up for him today with plenty of early pace looking a certainty from Cockalorum and Fishable.

17:20 York 21 Aug 2021

Sky Bet Apprentice Handicap

Showalong 1pt win only 15/2

A CD winner already and seems to like it here having put in another big run back in June. Has failed to get involved in two very hot races since but is worth another look returning here having been eased in the weights slightly. Gets a handy 3lb taken off by Ella McCain who does well for the yard that have won this twice in the last 5 years. Goes very well on soft ground so will have been praying for the forecast rain today.

0.25Pt Trixie Caturra/Straits Of Hormuz/Showalong – 1pt


Total Pts Played: 8 Points

Aug Total:  -6

Aug Selections: 6

Aug ROI: +%

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Sundays Selections

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Rival 1pt win only 5/1 (345Ches) Nap

Worth another try here stepping up in trip. Failed to settle last time and never got involved, previously put in a very strong performance here in an all the way comfortable victory over a decent looking field. Taken to bounce back for the in form Andrew Balding yard who has an excellent record at the track. Oisin Murphy takes the ride and is very profitable to follow when riding for the yard.

Set In Stone 0.5pt EW 20/1 (515Ches) Outsider

Aside from a couple of Jumpers Bumpers this one has not been seen on the level since finishing runner up over CD last year. Beaten by a decent looking sort that day from a good yard and did so from a wide draw in stall 10. Looks to be on a fair mark returning here and the yard are on fire with a 40% strike in the last 14 days. Callum Rodriguez takes the ride so is in good hands.

Low Profile 1pt win only 8/1 (130Mar) Nb

Modest flat performer who warrants respect going over obstacles for the first time. Has won over 1m6f and performed very respectably in a couple of staying handicaps. Looks a likely sort on paper for a yard that do well with these sorts. Yard/Trainer duo are very profitable to follow when teaming up. They have 2 together today and we take a saver bet on the other (see below)

Para Queen 0.5pt Ew 18/1 4 places (335Mar) Outsider

Decent handicap debut last time out and being brought along gently by a shred outfit. Eased 3lb in the handicap. Possible improvement on the cards given time and with 4 places available is worth a try today.

Profit and Loss 1pt win only 8/1 (150Thi) Iwac

Yard are having a great season and particularly noteworthy with their 2yo’s this term. They send just this one today and he has a decent entry on the York Ebor card in a couple of weeks. Nicely bred, half brother to a couple of decent winners and could be ready at the first time of asking here. Good Draw.

0.25pt Trixie on above 3 win selections – 1pt


Total Pts Played: 6 Points

Aug Total: 

Aug Selections:

Aug ROI: +%

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Glorious Goodwood Day 5

13:20 Goodwood 31 Jul 2021

Thames Materials Handicap

Oo De Lally 1pt win only 7/1

Found it hard to get involved last time out from the wide draw at Chester. We ignore that run as we know how crucial the draw can be there and instead look toward the from of the Newcastle win and his run here back in May over CD. Has the beating of the Mark Johnson runner on the form of that Newcastle run and the run has since been franked by Baashir coming out and winning at Doncaster where he had another of todays runners Just Frank in behind. The run over CD came on Soft ground and the winner that day has gone on to score again, finish second in a Listed event and bag a place here behind Maydanny Yesterday. So there’s plenty to like on paper. William Carver takes off 5lb and was on board last time over CD too.

13:55 Goodwood 31 Jul 2021

Unibet Stewards’ Sprint Handicap

Abduction 0.5pt EW 20/1 5 places B365

Promising 2yo form and returned to action a very good second to Music Society at Pontefract. Didn’t turn up at all next time and will need to bounce back here. Still looked pretty progressive on reappearance and is worth taking a chance on here that improvement could well be on the card today. Still totally unexposed and looks fairly treated here.

14:30 Goodwood 31 Jul 2021

Summer Handicap

Urban Artist 1pt win only 7/1

Dropping in grade and back into handicap company following a couple of decent runs in Listed and G3 company. Finished last season well in a Listed race following two comfortable Handicap victories under todays rider. Mark doesn’t look overly generous but looks to be the pick of a couple of decent sorts that Oisin could have sat on here and is sure to give her running again today. Trip and conditions look ideal to bring out the very best in this mare.

15:05 Goodwood 31 Jul 2021

Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes

No Bet

15:40 Goodwood 31 Jul 2021

Unibet Stewards’ Cup

Fresh 1pt win only 13/2

Progressing well and looks to be at his best when competing in these big field Handicaps. Has the beating of a few of these rivals already and his 3rd in the Wokingham last time out looks solid. Still relatively unexposed and the 3lb rise could be easily negated by the expected progression we could see today. Meraas for Mark Johnston looks to be a big threat and could be worth an EW saver at 16/1 (6 places)

16:10 Goodwood 31 Jul 2021

British European Breeders Fund EBF Maiden Stakes

Devasboy 1pt win only 12/1

Looks a likely sort for this event on breeding and is related to a couple of decent sorts including a 7f 2yo winner. Family have all gone well on debut and bred to act on these softer conditions. Mark Johnston teamed up with S De Sousa back in 2017 to win this with a similar newcomer.

16:45 Goodwood 31 Jul 2021

Signature Apprentice Handicap

Fox Premier 0.5pt EW 35/1 5 places PP

Had a year to forget in 2020 but then didn’t we all. The form that this son of Frankel showed the previous season however puts this one right in the mix from this current mark. Will need to have put a bad year behind him returning from a 166 day lay off but is in excellent hands and has gone well fresh before so the chance is taken.

Saturday Selections

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Country Carnival 1pt win only 6/1 (220Donc)

Third in a Listed event at York as a 2yo but has so far failed to kick on this term. Excuses can be made on last couple of runs and had previously been getting to grips with her racing again. Been given a big opportunity by the handicapper to get her head in front returning to turf with a little give under foot today. Yard amongst the winners lately and better can be expected.

Spanish Archer 1pt win only 7/1 (330Donc)

Got up late on to win this race back in 2019 and arrives here this year looking primed to go close again. Only 3lb higher than that win but 1lb lower than latest win so sitting on a good mark. Almost got up to snatch a win over CD just 14 days ago and goes from the same mark here today. Seems to go well at this time of the year, looks versatile with ground conditions so ought to give a good account again here today.

Ubahha 1pt win only 5/2 (437Donc)

A little shorter than what i would normally put up but the form of this John Gosden gelding last race is impossible to ignore. There have been no less than 6 further wins come out of that maiden race which make this opening mark today look a very fair one to say the least. Been freshened up here too so has to go close.

Zartaj 1pt win only 8/1 (605Ling)

Very well bred handicap debutant for R Beckett. Not given a hard time last time out returning to action at Wolverhampton and switches to turf for the first time here on handicap debut. Breeding suggests that she will relish conditions here and given the breeding could well cause the handicappers some blushes from a mark of 60 here tonight. Hector Crouch takes over in the saddle and he has a 27% strike for the yard. Cost £150K at the breeze ups and has to be better than this mark.

Symphony Perfect 1pt win only 5/1 (210Newm)

A winner at Bath on the 4th time of asking and progressed well to finish second in the Newbury Super sprint behind stablemate Gubbass who has since run well in the Richmond G2 at Goodwood this week. Will appreciate this step up in trip today and better ground could well bring about further improvement too.

0.1pt Super Yankee on above 5 runners – 2.6pts


Total Pts Played: 7.60 Points

July Total:  +12.17

July Selections: 186.95

July ROI: +%

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#GloriousGoodwood Day 4

13:50 Goodwood 30 Jul 2021

Unibet 3 Boosts A Day Goodwood Handicap

Smart Champion 1pt win only 8/1

Its hard to ignore how well treated this one looks coming in here and having an additional 5lb taken off by Saffie Osbourne. Has run well in his races around here previously including when 3rd in this race last year. Arrives in decent form and should take all the beating from the bottom of the handicap.

Kloud Gate 0.5pt EW 33/1 7 places Skybet

Has some very useful form on the flat and comes here in form having landed a double over obstacles in recent months. Ought to be competitive from this mark returning to the flat and is well worth a try at these odds with 7 places available. Has th visor on that seems to have sparked his revival.

14:25 Goodwood 30 Jul 2021

Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes

No Bet

15:00 Goodwood 30 Jul 2021

Unibet Golden Mile Handicap

Johan 1pt win only 8/1

6 wins from just 13 runs and still looks to be improving. Form of his latest win appears to be working out and gets a draw that is probably worth a couple of lengths here today. Ryan moore has a decent record in the race with 3 wins in the last 5 years including a 4 year old for this yard in 2018.

Qaysar 0.5pt EW 50/1 6 places

Dropping in class and ought to be competitive from this falling mark despite the wide draw. If Pat Dobbs is able to get him some cover he could well run on late for a place. Enjoys a little cut under foot so the drying dead ground should be no problem. Big price for one that sits on his last winning mark in handicap company.

15:35 Goodwood 30 Jul 2021

King George Qatar Stakes

No Bet

16:10 Goodwood 30 Jul 2021

L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate Glorious Stakes

Without A Fight 1pt win only 10/1

A good value alternative to the G1 winning favourite who arrives here with a little bit to prove following a very poor run 56 days ago. The selection is far less exposed than most of his rivals and arrives here with the yard bang in form following a break to freshen up. 2nd in a G3 on return and finished ahead of a couple of these that day. Forgiven last run when excuses should go well again today.

16:45 Goodwood 30 Jul 2021

Unibet Deposit 10 Get 40 Bonus Nursery

Sterling Knight 1pt win only 12/1

A much improved run on second outing when second to yesterdays G2 winner Asymmetric. Poor next time but is worth a try here now making handicap debut having been gelded. Joe Fanning is an interesting booking and I’d expect to possibly see this one try and do it from the front with that booking given this ones pedigree. Opening mark looks fair here today given that run at Newmarket in similar conditions.

17:20 Goodwood 30 Jul 2021

TDN Australia Handicap

Scampi 1pt win only 8/1

Oisin Murphy has hopped off the Godolphin runner who won comfortably last time out to retain the ride on this boy for Andrew Balding. Has proved fairly useful in his last couple of handicap runs and could do better here at a track where the emphasis sits more on speed.

Fri 30th selections

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Oscar Nomination 1pt win only 8/1 (210Bang) Nap

A runaway winner over CD last August, returned from a 273 day break a remote runner up to gambled on stable mate last time out in a well strung out field. Still very lightly raced and has a few less questions to answer than some of these. Been freshened up, only 4lb above that runaway win, CD looks perfect as do conditions so well worth a punt for this shrewd outfit. S Bowen is 3/6 for the yard for a 50% strike.

King Alfonso 1pt win only 9/1 (320Bang) Iwac

7lb below last winning mark from last August. Can be forgiven latest run when making yard debut over the trip of 3 mile which is far too long for this one. Straight back down in trip and cheekpieces added. If able to bounce back looks pretty well in here. Ben Jones has won 4 times on this now 12 year old so will know how to get the best out of him.

Percy Prosecco 0.5pt EW 28/1 (540Muss) Outsider

Off the track for 144 days for what will have been a much needed break following his form going downhill quite rapidly when highly tried at the turn of the year on the AW. Returns to action markedly up in trip and back on the green stuff which hopefully will spark a revival. Goes far better on turf and today’s trip is far more suitable and today’s mark looks an absolute steal if Archie Watson has him tuned up after this break. Yards record here is of one of the best I’ve seen with 10 winners from 22 runners for a 45%. He sends just this one and one other in the 720.

Marly 1pt win only 7/1 (800Newm) Nb

Been running consistently well and running into some pretty decent opposition of late including when 3rd behind Lalania last time out. She is weighted to go much closer with that re opposing rival today and has the additional 5lb claim of Laura Pearson. Will be scoring soon and worth a try against this opposition here.

0.25pt Trixie on above 3 win selections – 1pt


Total Pts Played: 5 Points

July Total:  +12.17

July Selections: 186.95

July ROI: +%

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#GloriousGoodwood Day 3

13:50 Goodwood 29 Jul 2021

Unibet ’15 To Go’ Kincsem Handicap

Dingle 1pt win only 14/1

Has put in a couple of ordinary performances of late but shaped very well at Newbury back in April in a race that was full of talent. Acquitted himself very well there as he had the time before when beating a very smart looking sort who finished 3rd here yesterday. Has the potential to make a mockery of this mark today. Jockey booking is baffling us somewhat however with more prominent jockeys from the yard sitting this one out and J Quinn taking over in the saddle for what is his only ride on the card. At the ripe old age of 54 is there something we have not been told ???

14:25 Goodwood 29 Jul 2021

Unibet Richmond Stakes

Gubbass 1pt win only 7/2

Has merely just gone through the motions to date and beaten some formidable opposition. Will improve again here for this step up in trip and will appreciate today’s ground too. We haven’t even scratched the surface to this ones ability yet and we could see something special today. Yard have won this 6 times from the last 13 running’s.

15:00 Goodwood 29 Jul 2021

John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes

Hard to see past the favourite but No Bet for me here, just watch and enjoy

15:35 Goodwood 29 Jul 2021

Qatar Nassau Stakes

Again its very hard to see past the top two in the market so we are going to sit this one out and go No Bet

16:10 Goodwood 29 Jul 2021

Goodwood Racecourse Patrons Nursery

South Audley 1pt win only 11/1

Arrives here in good form for a yard that have done well in this race before. Unlikely that we have seen this one at his best to date and looks bred for this step up in trip with a little more give today. Will need to improve to win this competitive affair but has plenty of potential to do so under a patient ride.

16:45 Goodwood 29 Jul 2021

Tatler EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes

Shoutout 1pt win only 7/1

An extremely well bred filly who makes a belated debut here for the festivals sponsor, Qatar Racing. Wide open race with lots of unknown quantities so we take our chances that the owners have been holding onto this one for such an occasion. Has a perfect draw to get herself into a good position under the magnificent Oisin Murphy.

17:20 Goodwood 29 Jul 2021

World Pool Handicap

Digital 1pt win only 14/1

Kevin Ryan often plays a strong hand here in this race and we think he may have snuck one under the radar today. This unexposed sort was pretty impressive as a 2yo taking a couple of notable scalps over the minimum trip. Has had excuses since and comes here sitting on what looks a pretty handy mark with conditions also looking favourable. Could play a hand here for a yard that does pretty well with their sprinters.